The Phoenix metro area the highest delisting rate in the country this year, which means sellers are blinking first and you’ve got leverage… but it’s not a full-on buyer’s market. Think “balanced with buyer edge,” not “fire sale.” Axios MarketWatch
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Delistings surged in Phoenix this spring,softer seller posture, more price cuts. AxiosMarketWatch
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List-to-sale is under 100%, days on market are elevated vs. boom times, patience wins. RealtorZillow
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Median prices have flattened/slipped a touch YoY, great for entry pricing, but you can’t count on rising comps to bail you out. RedfinZillow
Neighborhood Playbook
1) Alhambra / Melrose (Central Phoenix)
1950s ranches + mid-century charm near light-rail stops = cosmetic flip heaven (floors, kitchens, baths, landscape, paint). Entry prices are still sane, and the buyer pool loves “done” homes here. Wikipedia+1
Target deal: 3/2, 1,400–1,700 sq ft ranch with tired kitchen/bath, good bones.
Why now: Rail-access lifestyle sells; comps reward tasteful mid-century refreshes. Wikipedia
2) South Central / Central City South (along the new rail hub/extension)
The South Central Extension & Downtown Hub ties these neighborhoods tighter to downtown, a classic “buy the corridor” play. Not a guarantee, but transit adjacency historically boosts absorption after the dust settles. Newsweek YouTube
Target deal: Small SFRs or duplexes needing systems + cosmetic; prioritize walkability to stations.
Why now: Sellers are more flexible in softer pockets; ride the connectivity story. Axios
3) Sunnyslope (North-Central)
Hilly views, hospitals/employers nearby, eclectic stock. Value jumps when you fix the “big three” (roof/HVAC/windows) and add clean, light interiors. Wikipedia
Target deal: 1950s–60s 3/1 or 3/2 with tired systems; add curb appeal and energy efficiency.
Why now: Median pricing isn’t running away; buyers reward move-in ready. Redfin
4) West Valley “new-build shadow” (Goodyear/Buckeye/Verrado) — with caution
There’s demand, but you’ll be competing with builder incentives (rate buydowns, credits). Only touch undervalued resales with unique lot/location or where you can beat builders on monthly payment via price. MarketWatch Wikipedia
Target deal: Quick cosmetic turns close to schools/parks; keep budgets tight.
Why now: You can win if you buy well below builder-comparable pricing. MarketWatch
Ideas To Consider
Buy assumptions, not dreams. Base ARV on the three best closed comps in 0–90 days, then haircut 2–3% to stay conservative. DOM is sticky; don’t count on appreciation to save you. RedfinZillow
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Hold-time reality: National flip time ~166 days; Phoenix isn’t magically faster right now. Pad your carry 6 months. FairFigure
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List-to-sale spread: Assume 98–99% of list on exit, not 102%. Price to move and beat stale inventory. Realtor
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Margin discipline: In this tape, shoot for 12–15% gross on median homes after rehab (you’ll net less after fees). That lines up with current national/Arizona snapshots. FairFigure
Rehab strategy that sells now
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Energy & comfort first: New HVAC, efficient windows where needed, solid insulation — buyers feel it at showings (and in payments).
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Kitchen/bath light-bright: Quartz, clean tile, updated lighting. Skip over-personal design.
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Curb appeal: Gravel refresh, desert-friendly plantings, modern house numbers, mailbox, and a bold (but tasteful) front door.
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Inspection killers: Roof, sewer, electrical — kill re-trades before they start.
Quick deal checklist (save this)
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Buy box: 3/2, 1,200–1,800 sq ft; 1950–1975 stock (Central PHX/Sunnyslope) or 1985–2005 (West Valley).
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Entry discount: 20%+ below fixed-up comps minus rehab; builders’ incentives in West Valley mean you need extra spread. MarketWatch
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Budget guardrail: Cosmetic $35–$55/sq ft; add $10–$20/sq ft if major systems.
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Timeline: 6 weeks reno + 8–10 weeks to close = budget 4–6 months total; pad to 6. FairFigure
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Exit: List clean, price sharp, consider rate buydown credit vs. price cut if showings stall (you’re competing with builders doing exactly that). MarketWatch
